Tuesday, June 19, 2007

Baseball Tonight Should Hire This Man

Tom Krasovic, a guy who may actually understand statistics and their values, is actually employed as a sportwriter? Will wonders never cease.

Now I realize all of these stats are thrown out in order to support his hometown team, but they're actually used correctly, so he gets a pass for even homerism. I rip enough sportswriters on here, so when one writes an article like this, they're deserving of a little kudos.

Some highlights:
The easy explanation is that the Padres are pitching well. They lead the majors in overall ERA (2.92) and bullpen ERA (2.11). Their starters (3.36) lead the NL in ERA. Skeptics will point to Petco Park as a contributing factor. And they should. The place is a boon to pitchers.

But even when ballpark factors are accounted for, Darren Balsley's pitchers are dusting the field. According to baseball-reference.com, which adjusts for ballparks, San Diego's corresponding ERA is considerably better than anyone else's. The NL team that is second to San Diego in the Web site's "ERA-plus" is Arizona, which trails the Padres by 1½ games in the West.

The Padres are ninth of 16 NL clubs in runs scored. And when the offense's combined on-base and slugging average is adjusted for ballparks, it ranks behind only five others in the NL, and none of those is from the NL West.

As to how good the Padres really are, they actually might be better if one believes that overall run differential is a good measure, which CEO Sandy Alderson does.

The Pythagorean win-loss record created by analyst Bill James estimates a team's win-loss record by the runs scored and runs allowed. Alderson has said this is typically more accurate for predicting a team's future record than its actual win-loss record. The Padres have scored 78 runs more than they have allowed and have a Pythagorean win-loss record of 43-25. Not only is that well above their nearest pursuers such as Arizona (36-34) and Los Angeles (36-32), it is the best in the majors.
ERA+? OPS+ (explained but never directly mentioned, albeit)? Bill James? Run differential? Pythagorean records? I would love to see this guy try and explain any of this to John Kruk.

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posted by Mr. Faded Glory @ 9:33 AM   1 comments


At 6/25/2007 11:53 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hey! Love the blog! I was just going to tell you, when you write a new blog post, go over to BeTheRef.com and post a link to your story, and hopefully get a little extra traffic.


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