High and Tight.

Tuesday, April 22, 2008

Just a Tiny Oversight

Another gem, courtesy of our most recent whipping boys at Yahoo:

Correction: Yankees-Orioles story

BALTIMORE (AP)—In April 20 and April 21 stories about an injury to Alex Rodriguez of the New York Yankees, The Associated Press erroneously reported that Rodriguez and Josh Hamilton of Texas were the only AL players to start every game this season. Many other AL players had also started every game.

"Many other" indeed. These other American League players have appeared in every game their team has played. I am not claiming this list to be 100% complete, either:
Brian Roberts
Kevin Millar
Nick Markakis
Dustin Pedroia
Nick Swisher
Orlando Cabrera
Juan Uribe
Grady Sizemore
Ryan Garko
Edgar Reteria
Magglio Ordonez
Billy Butler
Alex Gordon
Mark Teahen
Jose Guillen
Chone Figgins
Gary Matthews, Jr.
Justin Morneau
Delmon Young
Carlos Gomez
Robinson Cano
Daric Barton
Mark Ellis
Bobby Crosby
Ichiro Suzuki
Rafael Betancourt
Jose Vidro
Jose Lopez
B.J. Upton
Carl Crawford
Ian Kinsler
David Murphy
Alex Rios
Lyle Overbay
Aaron Hill

So, Yahoo's guess to the number of players who have played in every game this year (2) was only off by a total of 35, which is within the margin of error (provided the margin of error is +/- 1900%).

Labels: a-rod, math problems, statistics, yahoo

posted by Mr. Faded Glory @ 3:16 PM 0 comments

Tuesday, September 04, 2007

Colin Cowherd on the NL vs. the AL

In a rambling, nonsensical diatribe today, Colin Cowherd described on his show "The Herd" on ESPN radio about how the Padres are the best team in the National League but would only be the fifth best team in the AL.

Ok, that's fine, a fair statement and a fair argument, although I don't 100% agree with it. It's defensible though, right?

Cowherd then goes on to blast the NL for being inferior. Ok, again, a fair statement. I'm sure he can back that up.

Cowherd's supporting argument:

"Just look at the All-Star Games. The AL owns them. Look at interleague play. Look at the last 5 World Series champions. The AL is just plain better all around, and it's not even close."

Man, that sure sounds compelling! Except:

The All-Star Game is a terrible example of "league vs. league" supremacy when comparing entire leagues. The All-Star game is, by its very definition, a collection of superstars from both leagues pitted in a game against each other in which almost all of them play. The game is not managed or played like a regular game. The fact that a bunch of superstars from one league have repeatedly won an exhibition against a bunch of superstars from another league is meaningless - it has no bearing whatsoever on the strength of the teams in those leagues. There are 750 Major Leaguers on active rosters for most of the season. Roughly 8% of those are on the All-Star rosters. I am of the belief that the 92% remaining of players have a far greater effect on pennant races and quality of teams and leagues than do the 8%.
All time in interleague play, the AL leads the NL 1,387- 1,317 (.513). That is not a significant difference. a .513 winning percentage is not dramatic. This season the AL beat the NL by a .544 clip. Again, not overly definitive. However, this is the best and only example cited by Cowherd that could even remotely back up his statement.
Last 5 WS champs:
Cardinals (NL)
White Sox (AL)
Red Sox (AL)
Marlins (NL)
Angels (AL)
The Al leads 3-2. This is of course not significant as the leagues have traded off every year. The closest a 5 year stretch could be is 3-2. This would be better used to support an argument that both leagues are fairly matched. I assume Cowherd chose "5" because if he'd chosen "4" they'd be dead even. If we go 6, add in Arizona (NL). Even. 7? Yankees (AL). 4-3.

Is there a point to all of this? Yes. Cowherd is an idiot. Also he doesn't research any facts and I assume most of his audience just takes what he says at face value. I actually agree with him on the premise, but his argument is backed up by mirrors and gorilla dust.

He's not different from most radio hosts, though. Why are these guys on the air again?

Labels: colin cowherd, douchebag, espn, padres, statistics

posted by Mr. Faded Glory @ 2:35 PM 1 comments

Tuesday, June 19, 2007

Baseball Tonight Should Hire This Man

Tom Krasovic, a guy who may actually understand statistics and their values, is actually employed as a sportwriter? Will wonders never cease.

Now I realize all of these stats are thrown out in order to support his hometown team, but they're actually used correctly, so he gets a pass for even homerism. I rip enough sportswriters on here, so when one writes an article like this, they're deserving of a little kudos.

Some highlights:

The easy explanation is that the Padres are pitching well. They lead the majors in overall ERA (2.92) and bullpen ERA (2.11). Their starters (3.36) lead the NL in ERA. Skeptics will point to Petco Park as a contributing factor. And they should. The place is a boon to pitchers.

But even when ballpark factors are accounted for, Darren Balsley's pitchers are dusting the field. According to baseball-reference.com, which adjusts for ballparks, San Diego's corresponding ERA is considerably better than anyone else's. The NL team that is second to San Diego in the Web site's "ERA-plus" is Arizona, which trails the Padres by 1½ games in the West.

The Padres are ninth of 16 NL clubs in runs scored. And when the offense's combined on-base and slugging average is adjusted for ballparks, it ranks behind only five others in the NL, and none of those is from the NL West.

As to how good the Padres really are, they actually might be better if one believes that overall run differential is a good measure, which CEO Sandy Alderson does.

The Pythagorean win-loss record created by analyst Bill James estimates a team's win-loss record by the runs scored and runs allowed. Alderson has said this is typically more accurate for predicting a team's future record than its actual win-loss record. The Padres have scored 78 runs more than they have allowed and have a Pythagorean win-loss record of 43-25. Not only is that well above their nearest pursuers such as Arizona (36-34) and Los Angeles (36-32), it is the best in the majors.

ERA+? OPS+ (explained but never directly mentioned, albeit)? Bill James? Run differential? Pythagorean records? I would love to see this guy try and explain any of this to John Kruk.

Labels: good sportwriters, padres, statistics, tom krasovic

posted by Mr. Faded Glory @ 9:33 AM 1 comments