Monday, September 10, 2007

History Still Within Reach for A-Rod

Way back in April and May, there was plenty of talk about Alex Rodriguez breaking Barry Bonds' single-season home run record. That's what happens when projections show a guy on pace to hit 108 HR and a season is fresh and new. We've since moved past such speculation and realize that's now very likely to happen anymore.

However, one long-standing record is within A-Rod's grasp: the American League single-season home run record. While McGwire and Sosa and Bonds were using their juiced up arms to taint home run records across the board, all of their actions came in the National League. The American League record still belongs to one Roger Eugene Maris, at 61. With 19 games left to play, A-Rod on a hot streak, and only 9 homers to go to tie the record, it's entirely possible that Alex can tie or break it.

This season, Rodriguez is hitting a homer every 9.98 ABs. You figure he should get about 4 at bats - not plate appearances - per game for the rest of the year and you're looking at 76 more for the season. (Four ABs chosen for easy math - he's averaging about 3.7 per game.) That would see him hit about 7-8 more this year, putting him at 59 or 60.

However if we just look at the month of September, A-Rod is ridiculously jacking one every 3.75 ABs. By that pace, he'd hit another 20 homers and wind up with 72. Sorry, but that's probably not going to happen.

It's highly unlikely he would sustain that September pace for the rest of the season, but his hot streak should continue long enough to push his HR/AB ratio for the remainder under his season average of 9.98.

It sounds almost crazy to say it, but based on that it makes 62-65 homers a very realistic possibility.

It would be nice for once to see a guy achieve a homer record who hasn't been dogged by steroid/HGH allegations. A nice clean record everyone can get behind as legitimite would be a refreshing change, and would be very good for the game as a whole.

Just imagine how exciting this would all be if Maris' record hadn't become counterfitted by Barry, Faux, and Burly.

Hey if A-Rod hits 62+ homers, would he then be a "True Yankee™"?

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posted by Mr. Faded Glory @ 9:48 AM   2 comments


At 9/11/2007 9:52 AM, Anonymous jon said...

I don't know if he can stay hot enough to hit 62. He has to cool off sometime right? Thanks for the stats thou I had been wondering about his chances. Keep up the good blog!

At 9/17/2007 10:31 PM, Blogger June said...

Hey if A-Rod hits 62+ homers, would he then be a "True Yankee™"?
please, he couldn't hold scott brosius' jock.


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