High and Tight.

Thursday, October 09, 2008

Offseason Target Idea #1: Jake Peavy

The Padres are for sale.

The Padres will be shopping everyone.

He's affordable now, but getting more expensive:
2009 opening day age: 27
2009 salary: $11 million
2010 salary: $15 million
2011 salary: $16 million
2012 salary: $17 million
Peavy signed a three-year, $52 million extension, which begins in 2010, on Dec. 12, 2007. The Padres have a team option for 2013 at $22 million, with a $4 million buyout.

Try signing Sabathia for that amount and you'll get laughed at, and Peavy's the better pitcher.

The problem? How much would it take to get one of the top three pitchers in the game?

I'm not one of the "trade Cano!" people, because I don't like trading young talent when it is at its lowpoint value-wise, but any package would have to start with the second baseman. The Padres do have a prospect (Matt Antonelli) they drafted first a couple of years ago who plays second, and he's one of the highest rated prospects in their system. That is, of course, because the Padres farm system is downright awful. Antonelli was scheduled prior to 2008 to begin 2009 as the starter on the big club. After a disastrous 2008 in AAA (.215/.335/.322, 7 HR) it's obvious he's not ready and possible he may never pan out. Cano would offer the Pads a significant upgrade.

Of course, they'd need a bit more. They'd be saving a chunk of change with dealing Peavy's salary, but he's their most marketable player now that Hoffman is in severe decline. To justify it, they would also have to get a number of those coveted arms from the Yankees system.

Hughes and Chamberlain are most likely off the table, so let's guess it would take Cano, Ian Kennedy, Austin Jackson, Xavier Nady and Alfredo Aceves. The Padres outfield was/is awful, and Jackson could be a good player for a long time. Nady came up as a Padre, and could fill in immediately. Kennedy could fit right into their rotation and could shine in that ballpark and in the National League.

Food for thought, Mr. Cashman. Throw some things against the wall and see what sticks.

Labels: alfredo aceves, austin jackson, ian kennedy, jake peavy, padres, robinson cano, trade proposals, trade rumors, x nady

posted by Mr. Faded Glory @ 3:29 PM 3 comments

Monday, August 25, 2008

You're Starting to Catch on, Ian

If you don't want to be made out to be a jerk by the New York media for your entire career, try showing some frustration after a bad performance.

“It felt like one of those days when I was warming up you could tell it was going to be a little bit of a battle," Kennedy said. "I’m not happy at all with my outing. Even though you don’t feel good, you’ve still got to produce, and I didn’t do that.

"I'm frustrated with myself tonight."

“I’m just kind of frustrated with myself.”

“I don’t think I was getting ahead of guys,” Kennedy said. “I wasn’t throwing strikes. I’m more frustrated that I was trying to get ahead of guys, and you can’t execute your plan when you don’t. When it comes down to it, I didn’t do it.”

Labels: ian kennedy, scranton

posted by Mr. Faded Glory @ 4:45 PM 0 comments

Friday, August 22, 2008

Does Ponson Have Naked Photos of Cash or Girardi?

They were willing to pull Rasner from the rotation, but the Yankee brass still hasn't seen fit to send Sir Sid a-packin'. There has to be some kind of reason for this. Instead we get Brian Cashman saying things like "Sidney's pitched very well for us." No, Brian, he hasn't. He has pitched very, very poorly.

Even the Sportswriters are giving him a pass. Instead of "release Ponson" we get puff pieces like how Sidney is setting up a crab dinner in Baltimore, full of skewed comments like these:

"People like Sidney," Derek Jeter said. "He's a good guy."
The journeyman has become reliable.
"His sinker has been a big pitch," manager Joe Girardi said. "He's thrown the ball really well for us. I love the way he attacks the (strike) zone. I love the way he goes after hitters. He works fast and keeps everyone involved."

Reliable? Yes. Reliably awful.

Ponson has pitched 56 innings with the Yankees this year. He's averaging a little over 5 innings per start, has a WHIP of 1.607, a 5.46 ERA, a K/BB ratio of 0.95, and an ERA+ of 78.

For anyone who doesn't know what each of these stats mean, allow me to summarize: he's been awful. Really, incredibly awful. He has been awful this season, he's been awful since 2004 and there's no logical conclusion that he will ever cease to be awful.

Why is he stioll getting innings at the expense of Phil Hughes? At least if Hughes was putting up those terrible numbers, one could see the reasoning: Hughes is a part of the Yankees future. Giving him major-league innings is a step toward his development. Same thing for Ian Kennedy.

When Joba comes back (and I suspect he will soon, judging by the reports) my guess is the Yankees choose not to remove Ponson from the rotation and instead send Rasner back to the bullpen.

I'm going to attempt to be as clear and concise as my currently seething mind can possibly be at this very moment: Release. Ponson. Now.

He. Is. Not. Good.

Labels: ian kennedy, joba chamberlain, lupe's bf, phil phranchise, pitching rotation, pitching woes, roster moves

posted by Mr. Faded Glory @ 9:58 AM 1 comments

Wednesday, July 30, 2008

It's Time for Some Scranton Call-Ups

Ponson is awful. Rasner's been better, but not much. The Yankees need to make a move to solidify the rotation, and kids, it shouldn't be Jarrod Washburn. Chad Jennings reports on the recent activities of a certain Yankee who wants another shot:

Ian Kennedy's past three starts: 20 IP, 7 H, 3 R, 2 ER, 4 BB, 14 Ks.

Manager Dave Miley said tonight was the best Kennedy's curveball has been since his return from the disabled list. Kennedy had talked earlier about working on that pitch, and it seems to be helping. He said he was missing up in zone during the first inning tonight -- hence the two walks -- but he started concentrating on first-pitch strikes and that really helped. The kid is really dealing lately.

Kennedy's been pitching better than Ponson. He's got a higher ceiling than Ponson. He fits into next year's plans, while Ponson does not. What's the holdup here?

One other bullpen note:
As for Brian Bruney, he was practically sitting at 95 mph tonight. He had a few pitches at 94 and 93, but I really think I saw more 95s than anything else. I asked if he felt stronger tonight than he has in previous rehab outings and Bruney basically said that if the Yankees say they want him throwing harder, then he'll throw harder.
The bullpen's been great, but Bruney could help make it even better. The problem is, whose place can he take? Rivera, Marte, Farnsworth, Veras and Ramirez aren't going anywhere, which leaves Giese and Robertson. While Robertson has mostly pitched well despite two poor outings that inflated his ERA, he's probably the one to go. Giese has also performed well and is more of a long man in the bullpen, which is something the club can still use at this point.

Labels: brian bruney, dan giese, darrel rasner, david robertson, ian kennedy, lupe's bf, roster moves, scranton

posted by Mr. Faded Glory @ 9:44 AM 2 comments

Monday, July 28, 2008

Why All The Talk of Washburn Replacing Rasner?

Besides the fact that I think acquiring Jarrod Washburn is short-sighted and ill-advised, why in the world do media types keep insisting he'd replace Rasner in the rotation instead of Ponson?

(T)here are reports that Jarrod Washburn of the Mariners could be joining the Yankees. The cost: another minor leaguer. Washburn (5-9, 4.50) is not the ace he was six years ago, but he's a good replacement for Darrell Rasner at the back of the rotation, another little piece of the puzzle that would seem to fit well as the Yankees make a run in the AL East.

The proper one to be jettisoned from the Yankees rotation - for Washburn, Dan Giese, a minor leaguer, Dave Eiland, or any contestant in the 2008 Miss Universe pagent - is Sidney Ponson. It's been well documented how strongly against this signing I was in the first place, and hoped it was only for a couple of starts, but as bad as Ponson had been before the trade, he's been even worse after it.

2008 Stats, with NYY:
Ponson: 26.2 IP, 38 H, 28 ER, 12 BB, 12 K, 6.08 ERA, WHIP 1.88, ERA+ 68
Rasner: 72.7 IP, 87 H, 39 ER, 22 BB, 48 K, 4.83 ERA, WHIP 1.50, ERA+ 86

Sure, Rasner hasn't been amazing, but that's serviceable from a 5th starter and he has a much higher ceiling than Sir Sidney, who hasn't posted an above-league-average ERA+ since 2003.

I still don't want to Yankees to deal for Washburn, especially because he's signed through next year and severely limits the other options for 2009 (Chamberlain, Mussina, Pettitte, Hughes, Wang, Kennedy just as a few possibilities) from making the rotation or long relief roles. That doesn't mean, however, that Ponson should still be on this club.

Two obvious replacements for Ponson were sent to the Pirates last week in Jeff Karstens and Dan McCutchen, but that doesn't eliminate some others. Is Jeff Marquez ready (assuming he's healthy)? Steven White doesn't appear quite there yet, and Kei Igawa slipped through waivers over the weekend and thus is off the 40-man roster, which would prompt a move to recall him. Alan Hornw couldn't do worse than Ponson, could he? Alfredo Aceves has shot up through the system this year.. he could be worth a shot. Lest we forget, Ian Kennedy is all but ready for a recall, and he's already on the 40-man.

Now I'm aware Kennedy didn't exactly impress in his early season tryout, but besides the fact that some of that could be attributed to injury, he still pitched better for the Yankees than Ponson has (albeit barely). Wouldn't he appear to have a higher ceiling? Well if he doesn't, the Yankees need to fire their entire scouting staff.

Release Ponson before he can start again, and bring someone up to start or replace Geise in the bullpen (Chris Britton is still alive, you know) and move him to the rotation, or look for a guy whose contract expires at the end of this year and won't be very costly.

There's no excuse to keep running Ponson out there every 5th day.

Labels: darrel rasner, ian kennedy, lupe's bf, roster moves, scranton, trade rumors

posted by Mr. Faded Glory @ 1:59 PM 0 comments

Thursday, November 29, 2007

Reality Check History Lesson

Who was the lowest regarded prospect of the following:

A. Phil Hughes
B. Joba Chamberlain
C. Sam Marsonek
D. Domingo Jean
E. Ian Kennedy
F. Brandon Claussen
G. Johan Santana
H. Ted Lilly
I. Ryan Bradley
J. Jake Westbrook
K. Tyler Clippard
L. Ed Yarnall

If you guessed "G," you were correct. Santana was left unprotected in the Rule V draft by the Houston Astros, and then was selected by the Minnesota Twins. The Astros didn't think highly enough of Santana's future to place him on their 40 man roster, and lost him for nothing. Two (and deserving of at least one more) Cy Young awards later, Santana has proven the scouts and pundits wrong.

So where are Yarnall, Bradley and Jean these days? Clippard is now so low on the Yankees radar that they'd happily throw him in on almost any deal at this point. Claussen is now in the Nationals system after frustrating Reds fans and not pitching in 2007. Westbrook has had one good year (2004) and been a mediocre pitcher in every other. Theodore Roosevelt Lilly has had the most success of any of the "highly regarded" prospects traded by the Yankees, and has put together a pretty decent career as an above average major league pitcher (although 2007 is the only year since he left the Yankees he has posted an ERA under 4.00). I believe Sam Marsonek picked up my dry cleaning last week.

What's the point here? Yankees fans tend to overvalue their own prospects and young players, thinking every single one of them is going to be the next Whitey Ford or Roger Clemens. Kennedy, Hughes and Chamberlain are good prospects and appear to be able to compete on the major league level and hopefully all three will have good careers ahead of them. There are, however, no guarantees.

Remember that when the thought of sacrificing one of three prospects to obtain the best pitcher in baseball in the prime years of his career becomes a possibility.

Or maybe you're still hoarding that Hensley Meulens rookie card, convinced he could still be the next Mickey Mantle.

Labels: bam bam meulens, ian kennedy, joba chamberlain, johan santana, phil phranchise, prospects, trade rumors, yankee history

posted by Mr. Faded Glory @ 4:01 PM 4 comments

Tuesday, July 31, 2007

Deadline Day

There's only hours left until the (non-waiver) trade deadline, and my guess is the Yankees will pull off at least one deal, if not more. Obviously the target for improvement would be in the bullpen, and the most attractive prize out there is Eric Gagne. The question then becomes would the Rangers lower their ridiculous demands, or would they continue to ask for the moon in hopes of signing Gagne to an extension (remember, Gagne is represented by the anti-extension agent, Scott Boras).

Farnsworth certainly seems to have worn out his welcome. It's a shame. The guy has all of the talent in the world but never really has learned to pitch. A big problem that the Yankees have right now is that they have too many similar relievers, guys with good fastballs without a lot of movement who relay mainly on that pitch alone (Farnsworth, Proctor, Bruney). One of them is going to go, and interest in Farnsworth seems low. Cashman has had an interest in Wilson Betemit for a couple of years now, and while the guy certainly has potential, he's yet to really put together any sort of impressive campaign in the major leagues. Moving Proctor however would give the Yankees a better backup option than Miguel Cairo in exchange (although my guess is Torre would elect to keep both players for some reason) and free up a roster spot for Joba Chamberlain.

The Rockies supposedly have interest in Farnsworth. Perfect. A guy who throws a 100 mph flat fastball in Coors (humidor balls or no humidor balls). Can't wait to see the 600' HR Pujols hits off of him.

In a perfect world, when Chris Britton returns from injury and finally gets a long overdue promotion, the bullpen could shape up like this:
Rivera
Gagne
Vizcaino
Chamberlain
Britton
Bruney
Villone

Of course that would mean promoting the effective guys, going with a 7 man 'pen, and saying goodbye to Mike Myers. Villone stays because of all of them, he's the only one really capable of a long relief role (I don't think Joba should be used that way unless he's on a regular work schedule, ie. 3 innings every 3 or 4 days. Historically, Torre lets his long man sit in the bullpen for ages without use.) A more realistic option would have Britton toiling away in AAA, and Myers still on the big club (Joe's gotta have those crafty vets, you know).

Ian Kennedy stays in AAA as a starter. I suppose he's now the new "next in line" should an injury happen.

Besides Betemit, there are other infield options. Houston's Mike Lamb is available, and Cashman should certainly look into picking him up. He was a Yankee during spring training a couple of years ago, but lost the roster spot to Travis Lee. He's hitting .299/.378/.480 with an OPS+ of 123 and can play RF, LF, 3B, 1B, and 2B. For everyone who's fallen in love with Andy Phillips lately... well, he's a lot better than Andy Phillips, and has the versatility to move around the field when needed. In my oh so humble opinion, he is exactly the type of player the Yankees need on the bench at this point in time.

I'll be back throughout the day with updates as rumors become deals and deals become official.

Update, 8:15 AM PST: The Red Sox send Joel Piniero to St. Louis for some sticky ribs and a bucket of used baseballs. Pretty much a non-factor deal. I do love though how in every trade rumor I read involving Boston, they are said to be offering "a package involving Wily Mo Pena." Well, no shit. You don't want Pena, but neither does anyone else.

Update, 9:57 AM PST: It seems as if Proctor for Betemit is a done deal. I really don't know how big a fan I am of this deal because I still think Mike Lamb was a better option and now because of the glut of infielders that Joe Torre loves, there's very little chance of bringing him over. On its own though, I like the move. This seems kind of odd though:

The Yankees view Betemit as another first-base/DH/bench option for this year, and a potential third-base replacement for Alex Rodriguez next year.
Bench? Sure. First base? Ok, in the mix. DH? Why in the world would the Yankees need another DH when you have Jhonny the Homicidal Maniac and Godzilla in the field, and the zombie formerly known as Jason Giambi on the mend? There's no reason to DH the guy. The OPS+ of 116 is good, but I'm sure you'll hear a lot more about the .231 BA from the mainstream idiot media.

At least when Proctor's arm inevitably falls off, it will be up to Russell Martin (and not Jorge Posada) to catch the bloody stub.

Update, 10:36 AM PST: The San Diego Union-Tribune has a story in today's paper that the Padres may be interested in Kei Igawa, for whom they bid $10M this past offseason. It wouldn't be the first time the Yankees and Padres swapped a Japanese import. The Padres are still in contention for the Western Division title though, so probably wouldn't be willing to give up much in the way of major league ready talent. Add in the fact that they just traded away one of their relievers, and the likelihood of this deal going down just doesn't seem very high.

Update, 11:25 AM PST: The reports all say it's Gagne to Boston for David Murphy and Kason Gabbard. What makes no sense here is that by all reports I've read, Texas turned down offers of Clippard/Marquez and Clippard/Karstens and demanded Hughes and/or Chamberlain from the Yankees, and yet they accept this deal from Boston for what seems to be far inferior talent? I'm no conspiracy theorist. I'm not the type that thinks MLB conspires against the Yankees. However, Scott Boras is Gagne's agent. The one team in the mix of teams (Boston, Milwaukee and the New York clubs) that was on Gagne's limited no trade list was the Red Sox. In order to waive that clause, Boston will probably have to guarantee him the "closing" incentives in Gagne's contract, which add up to well over $3M for this year. Does it sound that ridiculous that Jon Daniels has a handshake agreement with Boras to get his client the extra $3M from the Red Sox in exchange for bringing Gagne back next year, or setting up another player's contract or extension? With Boras, this seems almost status quo, so this deal in retrospect isn't surprising at all.

Update, 12:28 AM PST: ESPN live chat line of the day:

Bob: In your opinion, who's the most knowledgable baseball guy for ESPN?

Jonah Keri: (3:22 PM ET ) Too many to count. Gammons, Stark, Neyer, Law, Caple, Neel, the always sharp Curtis Granderson...great bunch.

Alex (Toronto): Does Chris Berman not count as a baseball analyst? Or is he too busy with leather?

Jonah Keri: (3:23 PM ET ) hehe

Labels: brian cashman, ian kennedy, joba chamberlain, joel piniero, kei igawa, kyle farnsworth, mike lamb, scott proctor, trade rumors, trades, trading deadline, wilson betemit