High and Tight.

Wednesday, January 06, 2010

Congratulations Andre Dawson

You're now one of the worst outfielders in the Hall of Fame.

Was it the lifetime .279 BA or the .323 OBP that had writers swooning (Dawson is now, by the way, the outfielder with the lowest career OBP of any outfielder ever inducted into the Hall).

Dawson's 119 OPS+ for his career speaks to a good player, but not an all-time great.

Most of the defense of Dawson comes from contemporaries who say he was "scary to play against" or a "gamer" or a "hard worker."

Someone enshrine Brett Gardner immediately.

I really don't get it. Usually you can look to RBI for a reason BBWAA members overrate a guy, but Dawson only drove in 100 runs 4 times in a 20-year career.

This isn't to say he didn't deserve some All-Star appearances in his career, but Hall of Famer?

Robbie Alomar of course was one of the best second basemen, both offensively and defensively, of all time. He didn't make the cut.

Tim Raines deserves to be in, far ahead of Dawson. Besides the steals (and more importantly one of the best stolen base percentages of all-time) he has higher career BA (.294), OBP (.385), and OPS+ (123). Yet Rock didn't even come close.

The BBWAA has gotten better in recent years in letting folks like Rob Neyer and Keith Law in, but you can tell there are a lot of knuckleheads still with votes.

Labels: andre dawson, bbwaa, hall of fame, keith law, rob neyer, roberto alomar, tim raines, undeserving hall of famers

posted by Mr. Faded Glory @ 3:03 PM 5 comments

Wednesday, December 10, 2008

Well, it's About Damn Time.

Keith Law and Rob Neyer were elected to the BBWAA. Finally. Per Keith:
I am still unclear on why, exactly, I might need to be a member; after conversations with probably a dozen current members, I think the opposite is true - the BBRAA needed people like me, Rob, etc. as members, to try to boost their credibility as an organization in a time when they receive so much criticism for the backwardness and outright hostility towards intelligent analysis (statistical or scouting) displayed in so much mainstream writing, to say nothing of the RBI/wins fetish in BBRAA voting.

I suppose the plus side is that Tim Raines will get one more Hall of Fame vote in 2018, because Lord knows he’s not getting in any time soon.

Of perhaps even more interest was the additional inclusion of Will Carroll and Christina Kahrl of Baseball Prospectus. Not only is the BBWAA adding 'net writers, it's now adding 'net writers not associated with gigantic media companies (SI, ESPN, etc).

My guess is that the reason is exactly the one given by the esteemed Mr. Law.

Of course this won't prevent the other mediots from voting for Joba Chamberlain for AL ROY in 2009.

Labels: bbwaa, keith law, rob neyer

posted by Mr. Faded Glory @ 5:04 PM 2 comments

Wednesday, November 19, 2008

Guest Blogger: Rob Neyer

OK, not really... but as I promised to explain why Mauer was the best choice for MVP today, I came across Neyer's article which stated everything I wished to and probably more eloquently. Thus, I present a snippet from the esteemed Mr. Neyer:

Aside from his height, there's nothing unique about Dustin Pedroia. Unusual: yes. Unique: no. Chase Utley plays the game right, and is a better hitter and a better fielder than Pedroia. Utley stole 14 bases this season, and was caught twice. Pedroia stole 20 bases, and was caught once. I'm sorry, but one steal per month just doesn't contribute much to uniqueness.

Clutch hitting? Pedroia's career numbers in the clutch are nothing special.

The Red Sox wouldn't have reached the playoffs without Pedroia? That's a mighty tough case to make. At season's end, the Red Sox owned a six-game lead over the Yankees in the wild-card standings. I dare say that even if Dustin Pedroia had never been born, the Red Sox would still have finished ahead of the Yankees in 2008. (And if it's really Pedroia's pure force of will that's driving the Red Sox to win, then they won't have to worry about retaining Jason Varitek. Might as well measure Pedroia for that captain's C right now!)

It's not so obvious that Pedroia was the American League's Most Valuable Player. He didn't do anything that Chase Utley didn't do, and Utley finished 14th in the National League's MVP balloting.

Which isn't to suggest that Pedroia wasn't an outstanding MVP candidate. This was an odd year in the American League. Of the four postseason teams, three -- every team but the Red Sox -- simply lacked a viable candidate. Chicago's Carlos Quentin quite probably would have won the award if he hadn't missed the last five weeks of the season. But he did, which left only Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis among those in the playoff money. There's really not a great deal to choose from between them. If you value hitting most of all, Youkilis is your man. If you value the other things, it's Pedroia.

On the other hand, if you value players who missed the postseason, there were other fine candidates, particularly Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau. And their team just missed the postseason; in fact, I suspect that a fair number of MVP voters completed their ballots before the Twins lost to the White Sox in their one-game playoff for the Central flag.

We know that Joe McDonald was right: Pedroia did win, and convincingly. While he didn't significantly outpoint runner-up Justin Morneau, he did pick up 16 first-place votes compared to only seven for Morneau. That's apparently the difference between making the playoffs and not making the playoffs.

But now I want to make the case for my choice: Joe Mauer.

This season Mauer became the first catcher in major league history to win two batting titles. He finished second in the American League in on-base percentage. He won a Gold Glove. Measured by Baseball Prospectus' Wins Above Replacement Player (which considers defense), Mauer finished a close second to Pedroia. Measured by Bill James' Win Shares (which also considers defense, along with clutch hitting), Mauer finished first in the American League, with Pedroia a couple of wins behind. Measured by Win Probability Added (no defense, but clutch hitting especially), Mauer finished first in the league, with Pedroia eighth.

None of these things can tell us everything we need to know, but I'm willing to say that Joe Mauer was one of the three best players in the American League, and that Dustin Pedroia might have been.

What I'm not willing to say -- what I'll probably never be willing to say -- is that Joe Mauer deserved to finish behind Justin Morneau in the MVP balloting again. Two years ago, there was virtually no evidence that Morneau was more valuable than Mauer, yet Morneau finished first and Mauer finished sixth. This year, there is virtually no evidence that Morneau was more valuable than Mauer, and yet Morneau finished second and Mauer finished fourth.

Let me just add that Mauer caught - not played in, not pinch hit in, not filled in defensively during, but caught - 137 games. That's value, especially with having to work with such a young pitching staff and getting good results from them.

As for Morneau, writers seem to have a hard on for him. We've had this fight before when Mauer gets passed over for his less-deserving teammate.

Pedroia however is becoming a perfect storm of media love and I don't think there's any way of stopping it. Scrappy? Check. White? Check. Short? Check. Gets dirty? Check. All of the Ecksteinian qualities are present. Add in some decent stats, and he should win the MVP of everything every season from now on.

Labels: dustin pedroia, joe mauer, MVP, redsox, rob neyer, twins

posted by Mr. Faded Glory @ 10:43 AM 1 comments

Friday, August 31, 2007

Neyer and I on Same Page About YES

From Rob Neyer's blog:

Yes, the Yankees swept the Red Sox. More on that -- and all the rest of the big games this week -- tomorrow.

At the moment I want to talk about Joe Girardi.

Girardi's currently serving as one of the Yankees' many TV analysts. By my count, there are seven of them, which has to be some sort of all-time record. What's more, most of them are truly excellent. In addition to Girardi, my favorite, Al Leiter, John Flaherty and Paul O'Neill all are solid (Leiter's better than solid, actually), and Ken Singleton has a million stories to tell.

Today, in the bottom of the fifth inning, this exchange came after Robinson Cano hit his second home run of the afternoon:

Michael Kay: One of the big knocks against Robinson Cano, for the first couple of years, has been his lack of production in day games. And that's changing with these two home runs today. And that's something that Jeter really rides him about.

Girardi: That's a small sample. When you hit well, they're always going to find an area where you don't hit as well as you have in the past. But it's a fairly small sample. Some guys are just better nighttime hitters. There's no doubt about it.
Actually, Cano's never showed any particular lack of production in day games. As a rookie in 2005, he played just slightly worse in day games than night games. In 2006, he was significantly better in day games. It's not until this year that he's struggled in day games, with a .721 OPS in 187 plate appearances (before today).

You know what, though? Girardi's right: That is a small sample. Of course, we can't know the depth of Girardi's understanding of statistical significance. But just a passing familiarity is something you like to see in a future manager, and Girardi will manage again someday.

Notice in his "favorites" list, no mention of Michael Kay. He's right though, although maybe he like Singleton a bit more than I do.

Give me Leiter, Flaherty, O'Neill and Girardi swapping off on every game though, and I'm a happy man.

Labels: joe girardi, john flaherty, ken singleton, michael kay, paul o'neill, rob neyer, senator al, YES

posted by Mr. Faded Glory @ 3:21 PM 3 comments