2010 Season Predictions
It's that time of year again - let's make some educated guesses on the final standings for 2010. As usual, here are ESPN's guesses
National League:
NL East:
Phillies
Braves
Marlins
Mets
Nationals
NL Central:
Cardinals
Brewers
Cubs
Reds
Pirates
Astros
NL West:
Diamondbacks
Rockies
Giants
Dodgers
Padres
Wildcard:
Rockies
MVP: Hanley Ramirez
Cy Young: Roy Halladay
ROY: Jason Heyward
American League:
AL East:
Yankees
Rays
Red Sox
Blue Jays
Orioles
AL Central:
White Sox
Twins
Tigers
Royals
Indians
AL West:
Rangers
Mariners
Angels
A's
Wildcard:
Rays
MVP: Robinson Cano
Cy Young: Jon Lester
ROY: Neftali Feliz
World Series:
Yankees over Phillies (again)
Crazy Predictions:
- Andy Pettitte will lead the AL in wins.
- Kyle Blanks will lead the NL in home runs.
- For the first time in years, more than one Yankee will have over five saves.
- John Kruk will say something stupid.
Labels: predictions
posted by Mr. Faded Glory @ 10:35 AM
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Monday, November 16, 2009 |
Should Win, Will Win (2009 Edition)
Just as in year's past, I'm going to guess at who will win the major awards, and who should win the major awards.
I think the writers are getting better at these awards, but there's still a long way to go.
In any event, my picks:
| Who Should Win
| Who Will Win |
| | AL ROY | Rick Porcello | Andrew Bailey | | NL ROY | J.A. Happ | Chris Coghlan | | AL MOY | Ron Gardenhire | Mike Scioscia | | NL MOY | Jim Tracy | Jim Tracy | AL Cy Young
| Zack Greinke | Zack Greinke | NL Cy Young
| Adam Wainwright | Adam Wainwright | | AL MVP | Joe Mauer | Joe Mauer | | NL MVP | Albert Pujols | Someone silly, like Raul Ibanez |
We'll see what happens - maybe I'm giving the writers too much credit. Labels: awards, predictions, should win will win
posted by Mr. Faded Glory @ 9:54 AM
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Sunday, November 01, 2009 |
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Wednesday, October 28, 2009 |
WhatIf Sports Predicts Yanks in Six
As you can see here, WhatIf Sports rant 10,001 simulations of the World Series and the Yankees won over 70% of them.
The computer likes the New York Yankees to defeat the Philadelphia Phillies in six games.
New York wins 72.3% of those series, with the most common occurrence being a six-game series win by the Yankees (21.3% of all series have this result - a seven-game New York victory is next at 19.0%). On average, the offensively-dominant Yankees have a 31-point higher average (.296 to .265), hit two more homeruns (9.9 to 7.8) and score 4.2 more runs (35.2 to 31.0). The Phillies only advantages appear to be in the "smallball" categories of speed and defense. Philadelphia averages 2.7 more steals (4.7 to 2.0) against the weak-armed Yankees' catchers and commits 2.1 fewer errors (2.4 to 3.1). As you can see below, the Yankees also appear to have the advantage in the starting rotation and the bullpen.
I also predict the Yankees in six, and think the MVP will be Alex Rodriguez (who got jobbed out of the ALCS MVP award).Labels: 2009 world series, phillies, predictions, whatif
posted by Mr. Faded Glory @ 10:34 AM
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Monday, September 28, 2009 |
Looking Back at 2009 Predictions
PeteAbe took a look back at his predictions today, so I thought I'd do the same. I'll admit, this is probably my worst year for predictions, which you can read here.
Let's break it down:
NL East:
Phillies
Mets
Braves
Marlins
Nationals I'll call this one correct. I thought the Mets would have been a lot better than they are, and undervalued the Marlins, but other than the Mets I had the order correct.
NL Central:
Cubs
Cardinals
Brewers
Astros
Reds
Pirates Whiff. Who could have predicted the Cubs would fall apart so badly? Not I, it would seem. The "going out on a limb" prediction of last-place Pittsburgh paid off though!
NL West:
Dodgers
Giants
Diamonsbacks
Rockies
Padres Win, except the Rockies were obviously a lot better than I thought they'd be. The Marquis turnaround had a lot to do with that, as well as contributions from guys from the farm like Fowler. The Dodgers were the class of this division however and there was no denying that.
Wildcard:
Mets The Metropolitans killed me in two categories. Obviously a big miss.
MVP: David Wright
Cy Young: Johan Santana
ROY: Cameron Maybin Hoo boy. Ok yeah, I didn't pick Pujols because he was the obvious choice. Big mistake. Santana isn't even in the discussion (see how badly the Mets screwed me here?) Maybin's not on the radar wither, as Coghlan and Happ and Hanson and Wells have proven. Epic fail, this one.
AL East:
Yankees
Rays
Red Sox
Blue Jays
Orioles I expected more from Tampa and less from Boston. I saw Ortiz in heavy decline, and a team of overachievers in 2008 that didn't change much in 2009 in Boston. Well, they proved me wrong. I can't call this a complete failure as I did get the division winner right, but will take the hit later on in the wildcard outcome.
AL Central:
Indians
White Sox
Tigers
Twins
Royals
Has there ever been a more disappointing team than the 2009 Indians? Weak division, quality ballclub, MVP type player (Sizemore) and Cy Young type pitcher (Lee)... wow. Totally off here. Tigers, Twins.. congratulations for making me look foolish.
AL West:
Angels
A's
Rangers
Mariners The West were by far the easiest divisions to pick. I underestimated the Rangers (who didn't?) and their pitching, but all in all this isn't that far off.
Wildcard:
White Sox Buzz. Wrong color.
MVP: Grady Sizemore
Cy Young: Mariano Rivera
ROY: Travis Snider Oh you Indians continue to confound me. Rivera has had a fantastic year, but let's face it - voters choose starters. I can't call that one a failure though, because of how good Rivera has been. Snider's not even in consideration for the ROY.
All in all, not the best year I've ever had, but maybe a Yankees-Dodgers World Series can help me save some face. At least they have the best records in their respective leagues.Labels: awards, predictions
posted by Mr. Faded Glory @ 12:13 PM
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2009 Season Predictions
Here are the ESPN "experts" predictions. As usual, I'll compare my results to theirs after the season. Hold on to your hats, people: Peter Gammons picked the Boston Red Sox to win the World Series!
National League:
NL East:
Phillies
Mets
Braves
Marlins
Nationals
NL Central:
Cubs
Cardinals
Brewers
Astros
Reds
Pirates
NL West:
Dodgers
Giants
Diamonsbacks
Rockies
Padres
Wildcard:
Mets
MVP: David Wright
Cy Young: Johan Santana
ROY: Cameron Maybin
American League:
AL East:
Yankees
Rays
Red Sox
Blue Jays
Orioles
AL Central:
Indians
White Sox
Tigers
Twins
Royals
AL West:
Angels
A's
Rangers
Mariners
Wildcard:
White Sox
MVP: Grady Sizemore
Cy Young: Mariano Rivera
ROY: Travis Snider
World Series:
 Yankees over DodgersLabels: predictions
posted by Mr. Faded Glory @ 10:14 AM
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Wednesday, October 01, 2008 |
Postseason Predictions
Here are the ESPN "experts" predictions. Amazingly they didn't all pick the Red Sox.
And... here are mine.
ALDS:
Rays over White Sox in 4
Red Sox over Angels in 5
NLDS:
Dodgers over Cubs in 4
Phillies over Brewers in 5
ALCS:
Rays over Red Sox in 6
NLCS:
Phillies over Dodgers in 5
World Series:
Phillies over Rays in 6.
Series MVP: Chase UtleyLabels: playoffs, predictions
posted by Mr. Faded Glory @ 7:10 AM
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2008 Predictions
After seeing the highly pro-Red Sox predictions by ESPN (below), I realized it's past
time for my yearly prognostications. For what it's worth, I've beaten ESPN's "experts" every year.
So first, here are the "experts," a number of which have the Yankees missing the playoffs (the average number of wins for New York: 91). PECOTA has them at 101, but what do computers know?
AMERICAN LEAGUE
East
New York
Toronto
Boston
Tampa Bay
Baltimore
Central
Cleveland
Detroit
Minnesota
Chicago
Kansas City
West
Anaheim of Anaheim
Seattle
Texas
Oakland
Wild Card: Detroit
MVP: Vladimir Guerrero
CY Young: AJ Burnett
ROY: Ian Kennedy
NATIONAL LEAGUE
East
New York
Philadelphia
Atlanta
Washington
Florida
Central
Milwaukee
Chicago
Houston
Cincinnati
Pittsburgh
St. Louis
West
Arizona
San Diego
Colorado
Los Angeles
San Francisco
Wild Card: Chicago
MVP: Alfonso Soriano
CY Young: Johan Santana
ROY: Geovany Soto
World Series: Yankees over DiamondbacksLabels: espn, predictions
posted by Mr. Faded Glory @ 1:48 PM
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Friday, February 01, 2008 |
Superbowl Matchup and Predictions
In direct rebuttal to PeteAbe's similar post
Coaches: Tom Coughlin’s changed attitude has been all the talk this season. Bill Belichick plays juvenile games with the NFL injury report and has yet to prove he could have gone undefeated without the benefit of breaking the rules. However, the referees will have his back as always.
Last meeting: The Giants were up by 12 points on the vaunted Patriots in the 4th quarter. Yes, they scored a touchdown on special teams. Should we just discount special teams? Is that not a part of the game? This would be like saying that defense doesn’t count in baseball. It’s a part of the game. The Giants were rolling until Sean O’Hara got hurt, then two muffed snaps and poor blocking caused the offense to shut down. One could easily make the case that if O’Hara remains healthy, the Giants score another touchdown.
The quarterbacks: Tom Brady is great in his execution. There is no denying that. Part of it has to do with the system, of course, but Brady’s got the record for TDs in a season. Montana comparisons are silly, of course, because the game has changed greatly since the Montana days.. back then 35 TDs was considered a great year. Eli Manning was Alex Rodriguez earlier in the season. The media liked to put all of the blame for anything that went wrong with the Giants on him, and he hadn’t won in the postseason. He became the easy target, and back page whipping boy. He was “too robotic” and “didn’t show enough emotion.” Manning’s numbers suffered in the end of the Patriots game once backup guard Gary Ruegamer was forced into duty.
Key matchup: Giants C Sean O’Hara vs. Patriots NT Vince Wilfork. If O’Hara can handle Wilfork without having to constantly double-team him (and avoid getting his eyes gouged) it will free up guards Chris Snee and Rich Seubert to handle the Pats linebackers Junior Seau and Tedy Bruschi. Both Bruschi and Seau are “downhill” linebackers who love to dart in and attempt to stuff the run. Freeing up the guards will open up more lanes in the soft middle of the Patriots defense for Manning to hit receivers like Kevin Boss and Steve Smith on crossing patterns, as well as open up holes for running backs Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw. The Pats safeties will also be forced to fill the middle and open up single coverage on Buress and Toomer. All of this centers around O’Hara’s ability to contain Wilfork.
How the Patriots can lose: Brady gets hurried, hit, and sacked.
How the Giants can lose: Inability to establish the run.
Intangibles: The Patriots have been making “fake funny news stories” for their resident cheerleaders in Bristol all week. Brady’s been to New York to visit his famous girlfriend (no word if they got margaritas) and despite what the Patriots will say, has a hurt ankle. Should the Giants hit him early and often, they can take away his plant foot and force the Patriots to become a run-only one-dimensional offense.
If you hear this guy's name a lot, the Patriots should win: Randy Moss. If Moss is getting lots of catches, the Giants aren't executing on defense and are in big trouble.
If you hear this guy's name a lot, the Giants should win: Brandon Jacobs. If the Giants' big back is getting a lot of carries, New York isn't concerned about quick scores and is controlling the clock and able to move the ball down the field. This also would mean the play-action pass - a major Manning weapon - is in play.
Biggest Patriots question mark: How good is that ankle, Tom?
Biggest Giants question mark: How are the nagging injuries, Plaxico?
Final score: This Super Bowl reminds me of the 2001 World Series. The Patriots are the Yankees. They’re a powerful, seemingly flawless team facing a scrappy bunch of underdogs. This is the game to cement their dynasty, as they’ve recently won three world championships. Like the Diamondbacks, the Giants have done well to get as far as they did. When it all comes down to one game, anything can happen. Giants 28, Patriots 24.Labels: nfl, predictions
posted by Mr. Faded Glory @ 3:45 PM
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Wednesday, November 09, 2005 |
Your 2006 New York Yankees
Obviously there are places where upgrades are needed. We'll address those first: centerfield and the bullpen.
LINEUP
CENTERFIELD
Forget Torii Hunter. Forget Milton Bradley. Forget Juan Pierre (please!). Trade for Brad Wilkerson.
Wilkerson brings good CF defense, can play all 3 OF positions as well as first base. Flexibility is good especially with an older team who may be prone to injury. Wilkerson sees a lot of pitches, and gets on base well (.365 career). His BA is low, so the unenlightened (and let's hope Jim Bowden is a member of this group) don't value him highly. He's got some speed although isn't a huge SB threat (which is fine) but is a first-to-third type runner. Good clubhouse guy, not a problem maker. Career OPS of .817. Had a down 2005 due to a nagging injury (that will not need surgery) but is expected to return to form in '06. Will be a MUCH cheaper trade option than Hunter (injury question, defense not as good as it was, not a great hitter), Pierre (terrible offensive player, Tony Womack with better D), or Bradley (asshole). Wilkerson could probably be acquired relatively cheaply with a B level prospect or two.
CORNER OUTFIELD
Sign Hideki Matsui. I am fairly confident this will happen. Also, sign Brian Giles. I can't believe how underrated this guy is, still. He's one of the top hitters in the game, and his defense is good (at the corner positions. Can play CF but isn't a centerfielder). Career OPS of .955. Stats dipped the last few years because he plays in the anti-Coors in San Diego half of the time. Road OPS in 2005? 1.008. He's probably going to St. Louis or a California team, but make the push, Brian. Hard. Signing both allows Sheffield to move to DH, which is where he should be at this point in his career. He'd be healthier and his defensive liability wouldn't affect the team.
Barring Giles, the market otherwise is pretty thin. You could get a cheap Jeromy Burnitz (no thanks), or trade for Adam Dunn from Cincy (yes!). But unless you're able to extract Dunn cheaply, Sheffield will most likely see the majority of time in the OF. Should a Pavano for Dunn deal be offered, you'd probably have to take it.
DESIGNATED HITTER / CATCHER
Ideally, Sheffield would get the bulk of the ABs here. However should Giles/Dunn not come to fruition, here's a crazy idea: sign either a: Kenji Jojima or b: Ramon Hernandez. Posada gets half time at C, and will see a bunch of time at DH and (hopefully) first base. Jojima is a free agent catcher from Japan. Excellent defense, hit .299 with 30 HR last year in what was a down year for him. People like to say that the drawback is that he doesn't speak english, but he is taking English lessons and you don't need to know much English to talk with a pitcher about the game. He would be a cheaper option than Hernandez, and probably more willing to sit on some days. If his offense doesn't materialize, fine, Posada gets 2 days off from behind the plate per week and Jojima is still Flaherty+. He has to be a better hitter than John Flaherty. I am a better hitter than John Flaherty. Hernandez is the best combination of offense and defense in the FA catcher market. 29 years old, great defense and seems to make pitching staffs better (and they credit him for it) and yet still will most likely be cheaper than the vastly overrated Benji Molina. Hernandez's OPS the past 3 seasons: .772, .818, .789. Once again, he's played the past 2 years in Petco Park. Would split time with Posada behind the plate and DH. Both guys stay fresh. Torre would need a third "emergency" catcher I'm sure, but that shouldn't be too difficult to find.
ROTATION
There is only one SP worth acquiring: Daisuke Matsuzaka. However, the Seibu Lions do not appear to be willing to post him. If he's posted go after him hard. Otherwise, you alreayd have 7 SP-type players on the roster. Stick with them.
BULLPEN
Robert Victor Ryan. With a birth name like that, maybe I don't want to know where the "B.J." nickname came from. Regardless, this guy is the #1 offseason priority.
Tom Gordon. Try and work out a cheap deal, offer him arbitration either way. Get the draft picks and let him walk if the asking price is too high. Chances are he'll walk and you can replace him with:
Kyle Farnsorth. He's not a fluke. Sign him.
Colter Bean, Sean Henn, Tanyon Sturtze, Aaron Small, Jorge DePaula: pick your poison and flesh out the pen with the rest + Jaret Wright. I'd personally go with Small, Bean, and Henn.
BENCH
There are some options and flexibility here. I'm all for Andy Phillips as the "new Tino." I worry though that Torre won't give the kid a single at bat all year. I would have adovacted Bernie Williams taking over the "Ruben-Sierra-Switch-Hitting-Bench-Player-With-No-Defensive-Skills" role, but not sinc e Torre decided to return. Let's face facts - nothing gives Joe more wood than seeing guys he's won championships with in the past out in the field. Joe simply wouldn't be able to help himself and Bernie would be out in center again and that can NOT happen, so here's hoping Bernie retires and we see him in pinstripes on Old Timer's Day.
Tony Womack will be back, and should pinch run once per game, usually for Giambi, so Phillips canm play in the late innings. Torre drove me nuts last year by pinch running guys like Bellhorn insetad of Womack.
SUMMARY
So I floated two possible rosters and have left some bench spots open because a lot of those guys are interchangable (the Miguel Cairos of the world). Here, ladies and gentlemen, would be my two possible combinations of Yankee rosters for 2006:
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| Batting Order A | | 1 | SS | Jeter | | 2 | RF | Giles/Dunn | | 3 | 1B | Giambi | | 4 | 3B | Rodriguez | | 5 | DH | Sheffield | | 6 | LF | Matsui | | 7 | 2B | Cano | | 8 | C | Posada | | 9 | CF | Wilkerson |
OR
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| Batting Order B | | 1 | SS | Jeter | | 2 | CF | Wilkerson | | 3 | 1B | Giambi | | 4 | 3B | Rodriguez | | 5 | RF | Sheffield | | 6 | LF | Matsui | | 7 | C | Cano | | 8 | C | Posada | | 9 | DH | Jojima/Hernandez |
ROTATION:
Johnson
Chacon
Mussina
Wang
Pavano
BULLPEN:
Rivera
Ryan
Farnsworth
Wright
Small
Bean
Henn
Now there's a team to be feared... don't you think? Also, with all of these plans, Cashman gets his wish to reduce payroll, improve the team, and only sacrifice minor prospects. These teams should win over 100 games.Labels: i am smart, plans, predictions
posted by Mr. Faded Glory @ 10:38 AM
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Highdsight?
OK, I realize this may look like I'm making calls in hindsight, but I didn't even have the blog up when I originally came up with these. So far I've only been off on one, to my pleasant surprise:
| Who should win: | Who will win:
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| | AL ROY | Huston Street | Huston Street | | NL ROY | Ryan Howard | Jeff Franceour | | AL Cy Young | Mariano Rivera | Bartolo Colon | | NL Cy Young | Chris Carpenter | Chris Carpenter | | AL Manager of the Year | Eric Wedge | Ozzie Guillen | | NL Manager of the Year | Phil Garner | Bobby Cox | | AL MVP | Alex Rodriguez | Alex Rodriguez | | NL MVP | Derrek Lee | Albert Pujols |
We'll see what happens with the rest. If media hype matters (thank you ESPN!) Guillen and Ortiz can start polishing their trophies.Labels: awards, predictions
posted by Mr. Faded Glory @ 7:48 AM
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