High and Tight.

Wednesday, June 09, 2010

Optimizing the Lineup

I had a conversation last week with someone talking about lineups and who should hit where, so I thought I'd revisit the Optimum Lineup creation (sabermetrically) that one could form using the current Yankees.

There's plenty of math and discussion on the subject, from Beyond the Boxscore, Retrosheet, and Catfish Stew.
Here's the breakdown of the roles and slots:

1. The strongest OBP guy in the lineup. This could be your best overall hitter as well provided he leads the team in OBP, but essentially this spot boils down to whichever player gets on base the most.
2. Often (but not always) the team's best hitter. Usually the most balanced hitter on the team as far as OBP and SLG.
3. A balanced hitter but not traditionally the "three hole" guy. Usually the most balanced player left after the other assignments are made in regards to specific roles. Without a strong requirement, this spot is filled after most of the others (see the order below) but is usually a better hitter that doesn't have a specified role in the lineup.
4. The SLG guy. Essentially, he's the antithesis to the leadoff batter (although they could both be very good hitters). This is the fella most likely to drive the ball as far as possible, and the guy who (along with the #2 hitter) is usually the best on the team.
5. The next best hitter on the team (OPS-wise) who isn't already leading off or batting second or cleanup.
6. This position is reserved for the highest power guy who isn't an OBP machine. It may fall to this guy to drive in the guys on base should the four and five hitters not get it done, so it makes sense that his OBP isn't that important.
7. Usually a higher SLG than OBP from the remaining players. He's similar to the #4 hitter - like cleanup #2.
8. This is the hitter with the lowest OBP. If this is a National League lineup, the pitcher would hit here. Yes, Tony LaRussa was right.
9. Usually the second-worst hitter on the team. Power isn't important at all since he's hitting behind the worst hitter, but OBP is because the lineup is turning over. Kind of the opposite of the guy in the seven slot.

The lineup would be constructed by picking players for these slots in order:
1, 4, 2, 5, 6, 7, 3, 9, 8.

So if we look at the current 2010 Yankees, (judging stats by only their play so far in 2010 and only utilizing the current Yankee regulars) the ideal lineup for creating runs would be as follows (using their OPS and the formula established by Baseball Musings:
Runs/gm: 6.115
1. Gardner LF
2. Swisher RF
3. Jeter SS
4. Cano 2B
5. Posada DH
6. Granderson CF
7. Rodriguez 3B
8. Teixeira 1B
9. Cervelli C

Interesting. It's no doubt that Cano and Swisher have been the best hitters so far, and besides the "gut" feling that a speedy guy is a leadoff guy (this formula doesn't take speed into account at all) Gardner would make a fantastic leadoff hitter. It makes sense to see A-Rod as "second cleanup" and Cervelli in the 9-spot. Is anyone surprised to see Teixeira as the worst hitter so far? Didn't think so.

Assuming Johnson can come back and be healthy, this would be the Yankee lineup (again, based on 2010 stats):
Runs/gm: 6.117
1. Gardner LF
2. Swisher RF
3. Jeter SS
4. Cano 2B
5. Posada C
6. Granderson CF
7. Rodriguez 3B
8. Teixeira 1B
9. Johnson DH

It's nearly identical lineup to the one above - just slide Johnson into Cervelli's spot (and the increae is minimal). I still think Cashman is going to pick up a bat at the trading deadline, so this is probably moot.

This is the current lineup Girardi is running out there:
1. Jeter SS
2. Swisher RF
3. Teixeira 1B
4. Rodriguez 3B
5. Cano 2B
6. Posada DH
7. Granderson CF
8. Cervelli C
9. Gardner LF

The runs/gm for this lineup is 5.978. It's not a huge difference, but a run or so per week could equal a couple of wins at the end of the year. I can understand why Girardi wouldn't make a change like this - you've got egos to be bruised (Teixeira), idiots who would chastise the move non-stop (Franscesa), and it's easier to just go with tradition.

Labels: lineups, optimal lineups

posted by Mr. Faded Glory @ 9:51 AM 3 comments

Friday, April 09, 2010

Well, at Least Now We Know Why C-Grand is in Center

While Gardner clearly was the superior centerfielder based on all available metrics including the naked eye, Girardi chose to put Granderson in center on an everyday basis and shift Gardner to left.

It's become apparant that Girardi didn't want to move Granderson to center from left when he plays Thames against lefthanders, because for some reason, Girardi has decided to platoon Gardner and Thames in left.

Maybe Girardi isn't aware that Gardner isn't the one who needs to sit vs. lefties.

Gardner vs. righties .330/.358/.688
Gardner vs. lefties .311/.317/.628
Granderson vs. righties .367/.530/.897
Granderson vs. lefties .271/.343/.615

It's fairly obvious who the one with the problem via lefties is out of the pair. Yes, Thames destroys lefthanders, and if you're going to play him at all it would be vs. a tough lefthanded starter. However if you're going to bench someone, make it Granderson and not Gardner, unless the players prove otherwise.

This seems more like a salary-driven "proven vet" Torre-type move. Let's hope it doesn't continue.

Labels: brett gardner, c-grand, girardi is an idiot, lineups, marcus thames

posted by Mr. Faded Glory @ 10:53 PM 0 comments

Wednesday, September 09, 2009

Joe Still Clueless

What a gem of a post by friend-of-this-blog Rob Neyer.

Torre talking lineups, nonsense
September 8, 2009 7:41 PM
Mark Newman asks three (future) Hall of Fame managers -- along with Henry Chadwick, risen from the grave -- about lineup construction, and I couldn't help siezing upon this bit from Joe Torre:
With certain people, it's easy. You know where the leadoff guy goes. I used to have trouble and Don Zimmer gave me a great hint-start from the bottom. He was right. All of a sudden I realized when you put the names down that way, it makes the rest of it easier. With our current lineup, you know where (Matt) Kemp, (Andre) Ethier, Manny (Ramirez) and (Rafael) Furcal will be. Those guys will be in the top four or five spots. It becomes pretty simple, and occasionally it's a matter of how to attack a certain pitcher with right-handed hitters or left-handed hitters. But when you have players who play every day regardless, it's not that tough a call.
(Sorry, I can't resist ...)
Umm, Skipper? Have you forgotten already that Matt Kemp has spent more than half his time this season in the bottom third of the lineup? And have you failed to notice that Rafael Furcal, who simply must be near the top of your lineup, has a .320 on-base percentage and has stolen only six bases all season? Russell Martin, who's spent most of the season in the bottom third of the order, has a higher OBP and more steals than Furcal, who at this point is suited to just one spot: eighth.

Look, I know that batting orders are relatively unimportant, and that the difference between any two moderately reasonable lineups is just a few runs over the course of the whole season. But everybody loves to talk about lineups, and I'd love to hear from a manager, future Hall of Famer or not, who's coming close to actually putting together the best lineup possible. 'Cause Joe Torre hasn't been close this season.

Maybe he'll get it right next month.

Torre admits that even though he started managing in 1977, he was still unsure how to even fill out a lineup card in 1996 and had to rely on Zimmer. How many duties does a manager really have that are more basic than setting a lineup? It also goes to show he doesn't even remember what he's done in the past by forgetting about Kemp's placement. Maybe that explains certain things, like the fact that he forgot he used Proctor the previous 25 days so he summoned him again.

I am so glad this guy is out of the Yankee dugout. Let's not forget how "successful" Torre has been without Popeye sitting next to him.

(Hat tip to Stan for the heads up).

Labels: joe torre, lineups, torre is dumb, zim

posted by Mr. Faded Glory @ 12:07 PM 1 comments

Friday, June 12, 2009

The Best Players in NY

Saw this note on Yahoo! (who for once didn't post a ridiculous Jeff Passan "Yankees suck" article:

If you built one team from the guys who play in New York, Carlos Beltran(notes) would be your center fielder and Johan Santana(notes) your opening day starter. Yankees would be everywhere else. Maybe you platoon Nick Swisher(notes) and Ryan Church(notes) in right.

So.. is it accurate? Let's see.

SP: Santana edges Sabathia. Mets 1, Yankees 0.
CP: Rivera still has it over Rodriguez. Mets 1, Yankees 1.
1B: Even with a healthy Delgado, there's no doubt that Teixiera is the man here. Mets 1, Yankees 2.
2B: Cano over Castillo. No brainer. Mets 1, Yankees 3.
SS: Reyes was having a mediocre season even before his injury. Jeter edges him here. Mets 1, Yankees 4.
3B: What happened to Wright's power? The average is there but he doesn't seem to like Citi Field. A-rod hasn't been, well A-Rod yet this year, but for one season there's no doubt he's still the superior player... but this is still the closest call by far. You can't go wrong with either choice, but we'll give Alex the nod here. Mets 1, Yankees 5.
C: Posada over Schneider. Easiest choice so far. Mets 1, Yankees 6.
LF: Martinez or Sheffied? Doesn't matter. Damon's got them both beat. Mets 1, Yankees 7.
CF: Beltran is head and shoulders above Cabrera. Mets 2, Yankees 6.
RF: Swisher hasn't been as good lately as he was to start the season, but he's still got a .900+ OPS. Church is serviceable, but Swish beats him fairly easily. Mets 2, Yankees 7.

An argument could be made for Reyes I suppose and like I said, 3B is almost a coin flip, but it's really surprising that a team that shares a market with the Yankees can't even come close to competing by position.

Labels: comparisons, lineups, mets, tim brown, yahoo

posted by Mr. Faded Glory @ 3:19 PM 2 comments

Tuesday, March 03, 2009

For a Couple of Dollars More, Maybe This Team Could Have a Bench

For all the spending the Yankees did this offseason, and all the superstars brought it, in this economic climate you'd think they'd have been able to sign some quality bench players to back up, spell starters, and take over in case of injury. Guys like Orlando Cabrera, Mark Grudzielanek, Ray Durham, Frank Thomas, and Nomar Garciaparra are still available and from all accounts available cheaply. Do the Yankees really want to go into the season knowing Cody Ransom, a 33 year old journeyman with 166 games played (career) is a Jeter hamstring or A-Rod HBP or a Cano jammed finger away from being a regular in the Yankee lineup?

Look at the championship teams of recent history, and you'll see how their benches contributed to their success:

1996:
Jim Leyritz, Jorge Posada, Charlie Hayes, Luis Sojo, Tim Raines, Darryl Strawberry, Tino Martinez (in NL parks when Cecil Fielder arrived)

1998:
Tim Raines, Joe Girardi, Luis Sojo, Chili Davis, Ricky Ledee, Shane Spencer

1999:
Joe Girardi, Shane Spencer, Chat Curtis, Luis Sojo, Jim Leyritz, Darryl Strawberry

2000:
Shane Spencer, Glenallen Hill, Luis Sojo, Jose Canseco, Alfonse Soriano, Jose Vizcaino

With the exception of Luis Sojo, those were some pretty damned good major leaguers, many of whom would have been starting for other teams.

Compare that to day's projected bench:
2009:
Xavier Nady, Jose Molina, Cody Ransom, Melky Cabrera/Brett Gardner, Shelley Duncan

Nady is a capable backup (who actually believes last year wasn't a statistical aberration?), and beyond that you've got The Wrong Molina, a guy with 183 ABs, and the guy who couldn't beat out the other guy who isn't very good.

For about $5M or so, the Yankees could probably sign Grudzielanek, Garciaparra and Thomas, giving them a backup MI, backup 3B/1B (who can still hit), and a pinch hitter extraordinaire (sorry Frank, nobody is signing you now to start).

Here's hoping the Yankees don't regret this.

Labels: lineups, roster moves, the bench

posted by Mr. Faded Glory @ 9:28 AM 0 comments

Tuesday, August 12, 2008

Over and Dunn

My annual quest for the Yankees to get Adam Dunn appears to be over in 2008 as well. Yes, I know Dunn strikes out a lot. Yes, I know he's not the best defender in the outfield. He's capable at first base though, and would make an ideal DH/1B/occasional OF guy, and strikeouts don't bother me that much when a guy has a career OBP of .380 and SLG of .520.

Cincinatti writers and to some extent the main stream national media tend to throw him under the bus because his batting average can be unimpressive (.247 career). Any regular reader here knows what I think about two of the three "triple crown" stats (yes, I'm OK with home runs).

Anyway, Dunn was traded to the Diamondbacks for a Happy Meal and some used batting gloves yesterday. Unless the 'back claimed Dunn on waivers (which they would have the opportunity to do since they're a National League team) before the Yankees could, I think Cashman missed the boat here. Matsui may or may not come back, but how much better does this look:

CF Damon
SS Jeter
RF Abreu
3B Rodriguez
1B Giambi
LF Nady
DH Dunn
C Rodriguez
2B Cano

Than this, from last night?:
Christian LF
Jeter SS
Abreu RF
Rodriguez 3B
Nady DH
Cano 2B
Sexson 1B
Rodriguez C
Cabrera CF

Oh yeah, and his line for 2008 w/ RISP and 2 outs? A highly impressive .222/.462/.750 1.212.

Labels: lineups, the big donkey, trades

posted by Mr. Faded Glory @ 2:16 PM 0 comments

Joel Sherman and I Completely Agree: Demote Melky

I know I've been saying for, oh about two years now that the Yankees should trade Melky Cabrera because his value in a trade was higher than his major league projections. When I heard teh YES guys go apeshit over Damon on the bench and Christian in the field, immediately I thought to myself "they're avoiding the really big issue here." I'll let Joel take it from here:

The Yankees were held scorleess against the Twins to open a three-game series. It marked the 38th time that the Yanks scored two or fewer runs. That is the second most in the AL. This was the team that was supposed to lead the majors in scoring with 900-plus runs. Instead, they are on pace for 775 runs. They have big problems getting clutch hits and it might be that there is no remedy to unleash a breakout and save this Yankee season. But I think the Yanks should at least try and one way to do that would be to send Melky Cabrera to the minors. He simply is not having competitive at-bats. The YES announcers made a big deal that the AL's leading hitter, Johnny Damon, wasn't playing on Monday night, but Justin Christian was. Forget Christian.

Cabrera began the game with a .221 average against southpaws. However, whichever side Cabrera is hitting from, he hardly ever makes solid contact. He has three extra-base hits since the All-Star break, two RBIs and two walks. If I ran the Yanks, I would bring Brett Gardner back up and have a lefty-righty possibility in center with Christian. But I certainly would run the injury/defense risk by playing Johnny Damon more in center to get a better offensive lineup. And I would hope real soon that Hideki Matsui can play again, and you could have Matsui as the DH, Damon in left and Jason Giambi at first, and hope that jump starts the offense.

Last year, you could say the Yankees had no one else who could play center, but I'm with Sherman - Damon can handle this in the short term, or a platoon of Gardner/Christian with Damon in the mix. Melky is bringing absolutely nothing to the table right now. Look, the Braves demoted Jeff Francoeur earlier this season to try and get him back on track, and Franceour had a much better major league track record than Cabrera. To me, Melky has always projected to be a 4th outfielder. People send me messages and posted comments earlier thsi season when Cabrera led the team with 8 homers to me saying essentially, "See? You were wrong about Melky. He's the next Bernie Williams!"

Melky is not the next Bernie Williams. He's the next Gerald Williams, and that's not even close to good enough to be playing everyday for this team.

Labels: lineups, melky cabrera, roster moves

posted by Mr. Faded Glory @ 12:07 PM 0 comments

Tuesday, February 12, 2008

Joba Most Likely To Spend Season in Bullpen

Yes, I know the Yankees are trying to limit Chamberlain to 140 innings, so some time spent in the bullpen would help to keep him under the innings cap. However, let's suppose there are no injuries to the starters, and the Yankees are winning, Chamberlain is the best setup man on the team, and we're hitting mid-season?

Barring a major deal for some setup help, I can't imagine the Yankees would take Chamberlain out of the 'pen and insert him mid-season into the rotation. In the bullpen, Joba only uses his fastball and slider. How is he to adjust to starting, and attempting to throw all four of his pitches, especially when he hadn't had a chance to develop the other two? Would the Yankees really deplete their bullpen by moving him out? If he stays the entire season in the bullpen, he'd get nowhere near 140 innings (an abusive Joe Torre isn't at the helm anymore) so adding the 30 or so innings to his totals like they had planned would seem unrealistic.

80 innings of Chamberlain is less valuable than 140. Barring some unforseen circumstance, my guess is that's all we'll see from him, however.

Labels: bullpen, joba chamberlain, lineups

posted by Mr. Faded Glory @ 9:56 AM 0 comments

Tuesday, August 28, 2007

It's Because He Has a .944 OPS in August, Right?

That's why Giambi is finally getting some starts again, right?

Wrong.

Torre said Saturday he wasn't inclined to play Jason Giambi at first base unless his numbers against a starting pitcher were too strong to ignore. However, when Torre didn't start Jeter and Jorge Posada (day game after night game) yesterday, he went with Giambi at first.

"With (Jose) Molina (catching) and Betemit at short, I wanted to put him in the lineup," Torre said of Giambi, who had started in just one of the previous six games. "He gives us more guts."

Giambi did that early, hitting a solo homer of Jair Jurrjens in the second. Jurrjens left after the blast with soreness in the back of the right shoulder.

I'm hoping next year the Yankees have a manager that believes more in OPS and VORP and EqA and less in "guts" and "hearts of (insert name of african beast)" and "having been there before-edness."

Labels: jason giambi, joe torre, lineups, torre is dumb

posted by Mr. Faded Glory @ 3:31 PM 0 comments

Monday, August 20, 2007

Kind of an Odd Lineup, Considering the Splits...

The Yankees face Dustin Moseley tonight, who has been much better against lefties than righties. Considering the new interchangable Yankees lineup, you'd expect to see a bunch of righthanders (Shelley Duncan, Wilson Betermit (S), maybe Jose Molina) in the lineup today, right?

Wrong.

Damon DH (L)
Jeter SS (R)
Abreu RF (L)
Rodriguez 3B (R)
Matsui LF (L)
Posada C (S)
Cano 2B (L)
Phillips 1B (R)
Cabrera CF (S)

Torre essentially put out his most lefthanded lineup.

Moseley's splits:
LH: .222 / .289 / .359 OPS+ 67
RH: .331 / .382 / .455 OPS+ 133

Lefties hit him like they're all Miguel Cairo. Righties hit him like a lineup full of Manny Ramirezes.

Does Torre not even look at scouting reports? If they win despite his boneheadedness, you'll have certain perople *cough* immediately with the "I told you Torre knows more than you" defenses.

We'll see what happens.

Labels: joe torre, lineups, torre is dumb

posted by Mr. Faded Glory @ 6:24 PM 0 comments